Friday Finally Gave The Bears A Bone

Stocks hit all-time highs before a bearish Friday shift saw Energy outpace Tech.

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Source: DepositPhotos

Stocks ripped to fresh all-time highs again last week. Then Friday hit, and the bears finally got their first real session of the month.

Bond yields ripped higher. Energy (XLE) ran the table for the second time in three weeks.

The market’s internals flashed weakness underneath the surface for the first time in a long while. That matters.

None of this changes the bigger picture.

The bull trend is intact. And data still favors buyers.

The rotation happening right now is the most important thing to track this week.

Today’s letter walks through what the scorecard is telling us and which sectors I want to see step up next.

I’ll also share the exact level on Nvidia (NVDA) that would make me start listening to bearish calls.

If you’re sitting on cash waiting for a dip, this is the setup to plan around.

More Bearish Energy, Less Bullish Momentum

Performance

Leader

1-week

30-day

YTD

1-year

Sector

Energy (XLE)

Technology (XLK)

Energy (XLE)
(nice rebound!)

Technology (XLK)

Last week I was picking on the bears because energy got abruptly shut down after leading the market three weeks ago. Tech then stormed back with a vengeance.

Last week energy ran the table all over again. Two of the last three weeks belong to XLE.

That’s a legitimate warning shot for anyone betting on tech in a straight line.

This is not the end of the bull market. Far from it.

Any volatility this week should be embraced as a chance to add to your favorite names.

From an internal standpoint, I want to see renewed leadership from a growth sector. Tech could step back up.

Financials, industrials, communications, or consumer discretionary carrying weight would be even healthier for this tape.

Tech still leads over the past 30 days and the past year. The deeper trend remains firmly bullish even when energy steals headlines for a week.

The folks who completely missed this rally are the ones I’m watching closest. Sentiment surveys show we’re nowhere near euphoric levels.

Plenty of dry powder is still parked on the sidelines.

Bull markets rarely end while skepticism hangs in the air. That skepticism is exactly what fuels the next leg up once the rotation settles.

Rotation Is the Name of the Game

Semiconductors can only carry tech so far on their own. That’s where I want to see the next handoff happen.

I don’t want to hear about a top in the market, tech, or chips until Nvidia hits at least $250. Until that line gets touched, the bears are mostly making noise.

Positions matter more than opinions. If Friday’s weakness extends into this week, that’s the dip-buying setup bulls have been waiting on for months.

Get your shopping list ready. The names you’ve wanted to own at a discount may finally come within range.

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