Frenetic choppiness

Frenetic choppiness ahead of the Employment Report (unimpressive with interpretations likely varied depending upon one's bull or bear perspective); were overshadowed by focus on Romney's efforts to support the Establishment old policy approaches; while markets barely noticed the Nigerian Oil Minister mentioning the focus of the upcoming Oil meeting hosted in Russia, which is to move toward $50 / bbl. oil.

All of it left the S&P market grappling for direction short-term, which is about as anticipated given both the Jobs report and our view of hedge funds and others using the move up in the S&P to lighten-up positions. Meanwhile the number of defaults, mostly Oil and energy sector, but also a couple in Financial and even in Entertainment areas, reflects a business deterioration that's not surprising.

As to the political theater; it's unprecedented and goes beyond un-Presidential to questioning the legitimacy of candidates from within their own parties. That includes the Democrats, given that we still don't know what (if anything) comes of the FBI investigation of Hillary's e-mail Server (aside private account, there's no precedent for a private Server so that's in-itself an issue for official email of a classified nature or not). And on the Republican side, it's indeed like the Jimmy Kimmel spoof of The Producers, because the Party begged Trump to run as a Republican, and not as an Independent, lest he be the Ross Perot of the era. It asked him to commit; he did, but so did they. What's happening now is insane, and still pretends that a candidate Trump means a Clinton victory; whereas so far all the pundits have been wrong; so why would that be different?

A couple observations before tonight's Debate: this Election is quite hysterical (it it were not so important); and to me historical... perhaps greatest of my life; which I thought had been JFK, the Goldwater campaign, or Ronald Reagan's. Why? Given the populism vs. corporatism vs. socialism (not social democratic policies like parts of Europe, which is different and what Sanders advocates); this is a potential tumultuous sea-change in politics; the culmination of years of discontent and indeed the never-spoken opposition to those believed slightly complicit in deconstructing our society in-favor of a 'global level playing field', which translated not just into NAFTA, but earlier into corrosive trade deals for decades. Some believe the more recent effort to create just enough discontent in part of Europe might even contribute to a 'one-world-order', rather than the chaos that actually resulted (the Islamic EU invasion actually revived historical sovereign nationalism and pretty much both strains the EU and any global plan some say a few leaders here and abroad cherished as goals for years).

Both 'bases' of both our parties fail to realize people are fed-up; and by the way both parties unraveled our vast industrial base for decades, and then expected money grown on trees to provide a social safety-net. It was naive ... this is the backlash...it's not just about Trump or Sanders, or Clinton's appeal to somehow provide for the economic underclasses without a revival of revenue generation. it's about something equivalent to the Bull Moose party or shifts in the post-Civil War era.. perhaps. It may not be the American equivalent of the end-days of a Holy Roman Empire, but it doesn't inspire aggressive corporate planning or big CapEx moves. That gives you a choppy market sensitive in every way. Today the BBC reminds us that this chaos is to elect the President of the biggest and most powerful military and economic power on Earth (well we still are..yay!).

In-sum: the market continues to work higher 'as if' a breakout somehow lofts it to higher levels; rather than setting-up a potential accident by virtue of running into upcoming earnings and other issues. The contradictory statements by one or more 'oil ministers' claiming a forthcoming deal to be made in Russia, really is more important than the market's pattern of the moment, and the politics too. Clearly, $50 Oil (claimed the goal by Nigeria's Minister) would lift stocks a lot in the short-term; should that actually occur. But that meeting is March 20 if one comment from Moscow is correct. So this may all be tentative until then.