Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 29 And October 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 29

September 29

Personal Income - August

0.4%

0.2

0.3

Personal Spending

0.5

-0.1

0.5

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

11.0

7.1

10.3

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

105.5

105.9

106.6

September 30

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Twenty City M/M

1.3%

1.0

1.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

-0.2

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

7.5

8.1

7.5

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

Chicago PMI - September

60.0

64.3

62.0

Consumer Confidence - September

92.0

92.4

92.5

October 1

Auto Sales* - September

17.10M

17.53

16.80

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

ADP Employment Report - September

200K

204

200

PMI Manufacturing Index

57.9

57.9

58.0

ISM MFG - Sept

58.3

59.0

58.0

ISM Prices

58.0

58.0

57.0

Construction Spending - August

0.3%

1.8

0.5

October 2

Initial Unemployment Claims

300K

298

297

Factory Orders - August

-9.6%

10.5

-9.3

Durable Goods Orders

-18.2

22.6

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

-0.9

October 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

205K

142

215

Private

200

134

215

Manufacturing

6

0

12

Unemployment

6.1%

6.1

6.1

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

International Trade - August

-$40.5B

-40.5

-40.6

ISM Services - September

58.2

59.6

58.8

ISM Prices

57.7

57.7

ISM Business Activity

63.2

65.0

63.4

Week of October 6

October 7

Consumer Credit - August

$21.0B

26.0

20.0

October 9

Wholesale Inventories - August

0.4%

0.1

0.3

Wholesale Sales

October 10

Export Prices -  September

0.0%

-0.5

-0.1

Import Prices

-0.8

-0.9

-0.5

Import Prices, ex-Energy

0.0

Treasury Budget - September

70.4

-128.7