Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 30 And June 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

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Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 30

May 31

Personal Income - April

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.6

0.1

0.7

S&P Case/Shiller Index - March

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.6

0.7

0.7

Twenty City Y/Y

4.9

5.3

5.1

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

Chicago PMI - May

51.0

50.4

50.7

Consumer Confidence

96.0

94.2

97.0

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

-8.0

-13.9

June 1

Auto Sales* - May

17.30M

17.42

17.3

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

ADP Employment Report - May

170K

154

175

PMI Manufacturing Index - May

50.5

50.5

50.5

ISM (Mfg) - May

50.5

50.8

50.6

ISM Prices

59.5

59.0

59.3

Construction Spending - April

0.6%

0.3

0.6

June 2

Initial Jobless Claims

270K

268

267

June 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - May

172K

180

158

Private

165

171

150

Unemployment

5.0%

5.0

4.9

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - April

-$40.7B

-40.4

-41.0

Factory Orders - April

1.9%

1.1

2.0

Durable Goods Orders

3.4

3.4

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

1.5

PMI Services Index

51.2

51.2

ISM Services - May

55.5

55.7

55.5

Week of June 6

June 7

Productivity - Q1 (r)

-0.7%

-1.0

Unit Labor Costs

-3.8

4.1

Consumer Credit - April

$15.0B

29.7

June 9

Wholesale Inventories - April

0.1%

0.1

June 10

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June (p)

95.0

94.7

Treasury Budget - May

-$56.0

106.5