Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 27 And July 4

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 27

June 27

International Trade in Goods - May

-$59.9B

-58.8

-59.3

PMI Services Flash Index

51.8

51.3

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

-12.0

-20.8

June 28

GDP - Q1 (f)

1.1%

0.8

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.9

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.9

0.9

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

5.3

5.4

5.5

Consumer Confidence

93.1

92.6

93.3

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1.0

-1.0

June 29

Personal Income - May

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

1.0

0.4

Pending Home Sale Index - May

113.5

116.3

115.1

June 30

Initial Jobless Claims

115.0

116.3

115.1

Chicago PMI - June

50.5

49.3

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-2

-5

July 1

Auto Sales* - June

17.54M

17.44

17.31

Car Sales

7.22

7.12

Truck Sales

10.33

10.33

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

ISM (Mfg) - June

51.8

51.3

ISM Prices

63.5

Construction Spending - May

0.6%

-1.8

Week of July 4

July 5

Factory Orders - May

-0.2%

1.9

Durable Goods Orders

-0.8

3.4

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.4

ISM Services - June

53.4

52.9

ISM Prices

57

55.6

ISM Business Activity

53.6

55.1

July 6

ADP Employment Report - July

170K

173

International Trade - May

-$38.4

-37.4

July 7

Initial Unemployment Claims

July 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

180K

38

Private

173

25

Manufacturing

0

-10

Unemployment

4.7%

4.7

Average Workweek

0.2%

0.2

Average Hourly Earnings

34.4HR

34.4

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Consumer Credit - May

$15.0B

13.4