Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 4 And July 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 4

July 5

Factory Orders - May

-0.9%

1.9

-1.0

Durable Goods Orders

-2.2

3.4

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.4

July 6

PMI Services Index

51.5

51.3

ISM Services - June

53.4

52.9

53.3

International Trade - May

-$38.8

-37.4

-40.0

July 7

ADP Employment Report - July

170K

173

150

Initial Unemployment Claims

267

268

269

July 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

180K

38

180

Private

173

25

170

Manufacturing

0

-10

0

Unemployment

4.7%

4.7

4.8

Average Workweek

0.2

0.2

0.2

Average Hourly Earnings

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Consumer Credit - May

$15.0B

13.4

16.0

Week of July 11

July 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June

93.8

93.8

Wholesale Inventories - May

0.1%

0.6

July 13

Export Prices -June

0.3

1.1

Import Prices

0.7%

1.4

Treasury Budget - June

$53.0B

-52.5

July 14

Producer Producer Index - June

0.3%

0.4

Core PPI

0.2

0.3

July 15

Consumer Price Index - June

0.3%

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales - June

0.5%

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

0.4

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

4.7

6.0

Industrial Production - June

0.1%

-0.4

Capacity Utilization

74.9

74.9

Business Inventories - May

0.1%

0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

93.5

93.5