Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 25 And August 1

July 28

Initial Unemployment Claims

260K

253

264

International Trade in Goods - May

-$60.8

61.1(r)

-61.1

July 29

GDP - Q2 (a)

2.6%

1.1

2.6

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.8

0.4

1.8

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.6%

0.6

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.1

1.9

Chicago PMI - July

54.0

56.8

54.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)

90.0

89.5

90.6

Week of August 1

August 1

ISM (Mfg) - July

53.2

53.2

53.0

Construction Spending - June

0.8%

0.8

August 2

Personal Income - June

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.4

Auto Sales* - July

16.9M

16.66

Car Sales

6.9

6.76

Truck Sales

10.0

9.90

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

August 3

ADP Employment Report - July

170K

172

ISM Services - July

56.5

56.5

ISM Prices

55.5

55.5

ISM Business Activity

59.5

59.5

August 4

Factory Orders - June

-0.3%

-1.0

Durable Goods Orders

-1.0

-2.3

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.3

August 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

175K

287

180

Private

170

265

Manufacturing

2

14

Unemployment

4.8%

4.9

Average Workweek

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.2

Consumer Credit - June

$16.0M

18.6

14.25