Forecasts for the Weeks of January 4 and 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 4

January 4

ISM (Mfg) - December

49.2

48.6

49.2

ISM Prices

37.5

35.5

Construction Spending - December

0.6%

1.0

0.7

January 5

Auto Sales* - December

18.17M

18.19

18.1

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

January 6

ADP Employment - December

190K

217

190

International Trade - November

-$44.1B

-43.9

-44.4

ISM Services - December

56.2

55.9

56.5

Factory Orders - November

-0.1%

2.9

-0.2

Durable Goods Orders

0.0

1.5

Nondurable Goods Orders

-0.2

0.0

January 7

Initial Unemployment Claims

270K

287

270

January 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

200K

211

200

Private

193

197

195

Unemployment

5.0%

5.0

5.0

Average Workweek

34.5Hr

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Wholesale Inventories - November

-0.1%

-0.1

0

Consumer Credit - November

$18.0B

16.0

19.0

Week of January 11

January 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Dec

96.0

94.8

January 13

Treasury Budget - December

-$21.0B

-64.6

January 14

Export Prices - December

-0.5%

-0.6

Import Prices_ December

-1.4

-0.4

Ex Petroleum

-0.4

-0.3

January 15

Retail Sales - December

0.3%

0.2

Retail Sales, ex autos

0.3

0.4

Retail Sales, autos and gasoline

0.4

0.5

Producer Price Index - December

0.0%

0.3

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.1

NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January

-4.0

-4.6

Industrial Production - December

0.0

-0.6

Capacity Utilization

77.0%

77.0

Business Inventories - November

0.0

0.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p)

92.9

92.6