Forecasts for the Weeks of January 27 and February 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 27

January 27

New Home Sales - December

722K

719

730

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-3.2

January 28

Durable Goods Orders - December

1.5%

-2.1

0.5

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.4

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.2

2.4

Consumer Confidence - January

126.6

126.5

128.0

Richmond Fed Index

-3

-5

January 29

International Trade in Goods (a)

-$67.5B

-63.2

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.1%

-0.1

Pending Home Sales - December

108.5

108.5

109.0

FMOC

1.625%

1.625

1.625

January 30

Initial Unemployment Claims

218K

212

215

GDP - Q4 (a)

2.1%

2.1

2.1

January 31

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.7%

0.7

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.8

2.8

Personal Income - December

0.3%

0.5

0.3

Personal Spending

0.4

0.4

0.3

Chicago PMI - January

47.5

48.2

48.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

99.1

99.1

99.1

Week of February 3

February 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

51.7

51.7

ISM (Mfg) - January

47.5

47.1

47.8

ISM Prices

Construction Spending - January

0.3%

0.6

0.5

Auto Sales - January

16.8K

16.7

Car Sales

4.6

4.5

Truck Sales

12.2

12.2

February 4

Factory Orders - December

1.0%

-0.7

Durable Goods Orders

1.5

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.6

ADP Employment Survey - January

140K

202

160

February 5

International Trade

-$46.5B

-43.1

-44.6

PMI Services Index - January

53.2

53.2

ISM Services - January

55.2

55.0

55.1

February 6

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.4%

-0.2

1.2

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

2.5

1.7

February 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

150K

145

156

Private

140

139

Manufacturing

-12

-12

-7

Unemployment

3.5%

3.5

3.5

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

Wholesale Inventories (f)

0.1%

-0.1

Consumer Credit - December

$15.0B

12.7