Forecasts for the Weeks of Jan. 11 and Jan. 18

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of January 11
January 12
NFIB Small Business Confidence - December	100.0	101.4
JOLTS - December	6.400M	6.652

January 13
Consumer Price Index - December	0.4%	0.2	0.4
Core CPI	0.2	0.2	0.2

Treasury Budget - December	-123.5B	-145.3

January 14
Export Prices - December	0.8%	0.6	0.5
Import Prices_ December	0.9	0.1	0.6
Ex Petroleum	0.1	0.0

Initial Unemployment Claims	785K	787	780

January 15
Retail Sales - December	-0.1%	-1.1	0.0
Retail Sales, ex autos	-0.3	-0.9	-0.1
Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline

Producer Price Index - December	0.3%	0.1	0.3
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)	0.2	0.1

NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January	6.3%	4.9	6

Industrial Production - December	0.5%	0.4	0.4
Capacity Utilization	73.6	73.3	73.5
Manufacturing	0.7	0.8	0.6

Business Inventories - November	0.4%	0.7	0.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p)	80.7	81.4	80

Week of January 18
January 21
Housing Starts - December	1.564M	1.547	1.560
Building Permits	1.600	1.635	1.600

Philadelphia Fed Index	14.0	11.1	12.6

January 22
Existing Home Sales - December	6.400M	6.690	6.460
NAHB Index - January	86	86