Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 4 And 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 4

February 4

Auto Sales - January

17.0M

17.5

17.0

February 5

PMI Services Index - January

54.2

54.2

ISM Services - January

57.6

57.6

57.0

February 6

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

1.6%

2.3

1.6

Unit Labor Cost

1.9

0.9

1.7

February 7

Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

253

220

Consumer Credit - December

$18.0B

22.1

17.0

Week of February 11

February 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January

104.4%

104.4

JOLTS - December

7.000M

6.888

February 13

Consumer Price Index - January

0.1%

-0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

February 14

Producer Price Index - January

0.1%

-0.2

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.0

February 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

11.5

3.9

Export Prices - February

-0.3%

-0.6

Import Prices

0.2

-1.0

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

-0.2

0.3

Industrial Production - January

0.2%

0.3

Manufacturing Output

0.1

1.1

Capacity Utilization

78.8

78.7

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p)

92.5

91.2