Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 29 And September 5

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 29

August 29

Personal Income - July

0.4%

0.2

0.4

Personal Spending

0.3

0.4

0.3

PCE Price Index

0.1

0.1

Core PCE Price Index

0.2

0.1

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-1.3

-1.3

August 30

S&P Case/Shiller Index - June

Twenty City M/M

1.0%

0.9

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.0

-0.1

0.1

Twenty City Y/Y

5.3

5.2

5.2

Consumer Confidence - August

97.1

97.3

97.3

August 31

ADP Employment Report - August

180K

179

175

Chicago PMI

54.4

55.8

54.2

Pending Home Sales Index - Aug

111.1

111.0

111.2

September 1

Initial Unemployment Claims

264K

261

265

Productivity - Q2 (r)

-0.6%

-0.5

-0.6

Unit Labor Costs

2.1

2.0

2.1

ISM (Mfg) - August

52.3

52.6

52.2

Construction Spending - July

0.6%

-0.6

0.6

Auto Sales* - August

17.4M

17.9

17.1

Car Sales

6.9

7.1

Truck Sales

10.6

10.8

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

September 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - August

190K

255

175

Private

180

217

Unemployment

4.8%

4.9

4.8

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - July

-$39.6B

-44.5

-41.3

Factory Orders - June

2.2

-1.5

2.0

Durable Goods Orders

4.4

-3.9

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.0

1.0

Week of September 5

September 6

PMI Services Index - August

51.2

50.9

ISM Services - August

55.5

55.5

55.6

September 7

JOLTS - July

5.635M

5.624

September 8

Consumer Credit - July

$15.2B

12.3

15.4

September 9

Wholesale Inventories - July

0.1%

0.3