Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 1 And 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 1

August 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - July

ISM (Mfg) - July

52.8

53.2

53.2

ISM Prices

60.0

60.5

60.0

Construction Spending - June

0.7%

0.8

0.6

August 2

Personal Income - June

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.4

0.3

Auto Sales* - July

17.0M

16.66

17.3

Car Sales

6.9

6.76

Truck Sales

10.1

9.90

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

August 3

ADP Employment Report - July

170K

172

165

PMI Services Index

51.0

50.9

ISM Services - July

58.8

56.5

56.0

August 4

Initial Unemployment Claims

260K

266

265

Factory Orders - June

-1.8%

-1.0

-1.8

Durable Goods Orders

-4.0

-2.3

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.3

August 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

175K

287

185

Private

170

265

175

Manufacturing

0

14

0

Unemployment

4.8%

4.9

4.9

Average Workweek

34.4

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

International Trade - June

-$43.4B

-41.4

-43.0

Consumer Credit - June

$15.2M

18.6

15.5

Week of August 8

August 9

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - July

94.5

94.5

Productivity - Q2 (p)

0.6%

-0.6

Unit Labor Costs

1.4

4.5

Wholesale Inventories - June (r)

0.0%

0.0

August 10

JOLTS - June

5.70M

5.500

Treasury Budget - July

-$116.0B

6.3

August 11

Export Prices -  July

0.1%

0.8

Import Prices

-0.4

0.2

August 12

Retail Sales - July

0.3%

0.6

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.2

0.7

Producer Price Index - July

0.1%

0.5

PPI Core

0.2

0.3

Business Inventories - June

0.1%

0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)

90.5

90.0