Forecasts for the Weeks of April 25 and May 2

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 25

Apil 25

New Home Sales - March

522K

512

522

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

-10

-31.8

-9

April 26

Durable Goods Sales - March

1.0%

-3.0

1.6

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.8

0.7

Twenty City Y/Y

5.4

5.7

5.5

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

Consumer Confidence

96.0

96.2

96.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

10

22

12

April 27

International Trade in Goods - February

-$63.9B

-62.9

-62.6

Pending Home Sales Index - March

109.1

109.1

109.6

FMOC Announcement

0.375%

0.375

0.375

April 28

Initial Jobless Claims

260K

247

260

GDP - Q1 (a)

0.7%

1.4

0.7

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

0.7

0.9

0.5

PMI Services Flash Index

52.0

51.3

52.0

April 29

Personal Income - March

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Personal Spending

0.2

0.1

0.2

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.6%

0.6

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.0

2.0

Chicago PMI

53.2

53.6

53.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

90.0

89.7

90.4

Week of May 2

May 2

PMI Manufacturing Index - April

51.0

50.8

ISM (Mfg) - April

51.7

51.8

ISM Prices

51.5

Construction Spending - March

0.3%

-0.5

May 3

Auto Sales* - April

16.8M

16.57

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

May 4

ADP Employment Report - April

200K

200

International Trade - March

-$47.9B

-47.1

Productivity - Q2 (p)

-1.9%

-2.2

Unit Labor Costs

4.6

3.3

Factory Orders - March

0.5%

-1.7

PMI Services Index

51.5

51.3

ISM Services - April

54.7

54.5

May 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

210K

215.0

Private

200

195.0

Unemployment

5.0%

5.0

Average Workweek

34.5Hr

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Consumer Credit - March

$15.0B

14.0