Forecasts for the Weeks of April 18 and 25

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

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Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 18

April 18

NAHB Index - April

59

58

59

April 19

Housing Starts - March

1.180M

1.178

1.167

Building Permits

1.195

1.167

1.200

April 20

Existing Home Sales - March

5.290M

5.080

5.268

April 21

Initial Unemployment Claims

265K

253

265

Philadelphia Fed Survey

7.0

12.4

9.0

Chicago Fed National Economy Activity - March

0.20

-0.29

FHFA House Price Index - February

0.2%

0.5

0.4

Leading Indicators - March

0.4

0.1

0.5

April 22

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

51.5

51.5

52.0

Week of April 25

Apil 25

New Home Sales - March

522K

512

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

-11

-31.8

April 26

Durable Goods Sales - March

1.0%

-3.0

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.8

Twenty City Y/Y

5.4

5.7

Consumer Confidence

96.0

96.2

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

10

22

April 27

International Trade in Goods - February

-$63.9B

-62.9

Pending Home Sales Index - March

109.1

109.1

FMOC Announcement

0.325%

0.325

April 28

GDP - Q1 (a)

0.8%

1.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

0.9

PMI Services Flash Index

51.3

April 29

Personal Income - March

0.3%

0.2

Personal Spending

0.2

0.1

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.6%

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.0

2.0

Chicago PMI

53.1

53.6

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

90.0

89.7