Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 15 And 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 15

April 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

8.0

3.7

6.8

April 16

Industrial Production - March

0.3%

0.0

0.3

Capacity Utilization

79.3

79.1

79.2

Manufacturing

0.3

-0.4

NAHB Index - April

63

62

63

April 17

International Trade - February

-$54.0B

-51.1

-53.7

Wholesale Inventories - February

0.3%

1.2

0.4

Wholesale Sales

April 18

Initial Unemployment Claims

204

196

206

Philadelphia Fed Survey

10.0

13.7

10.2

Leading Indicators - March

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Retail Sales - March

0.8%

-0.2

0.8

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

-0.4

0.7

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

-0.6

0.4

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

52.4

52.4

52,2

PMI Services Flash Index

56.0

55.3

55.0

Business Inventories - March

0.3%

0.8

0.3

April 19

Housing Starts - March

1.270M

1.163

1.230

Building Permits

1.300

1.291

1.300

Week of April 22

April 22

Existing Home Sales - March

5.250K

5.510

April 23

FHFA Housing Price Index - February

0.3%

0.6

New Home Sales - March

630K

667

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

10

10

April 25

Durable Goods Orders - March

0.3%

-1.6

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

10

10

April 26

GDP - Q1 (a)

1.6%

2.2