Forecasts For Quarterly GDP And Other Upcoming Economic Releases

September 10, 2016

Quarterly Forecasts (percent)

Q216

Q316

Q416

Q117

Q217

Q317

2015

2016

2017

GDP: Annual

1.1

2.8

2.4

1.4

2.6

2.5

2.6

1.5

2.2

GDP: Q4/Q4

1.9

1.8

2.2

CPI: Year/Year

1.1

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.8

0.1

1.2

1.8

Core CPI: Y/Y

2.2

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.2

1.9

Unemployment Rate

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

5.3

4.9

4.6

Fed Funds: End Qtr

0.375

0.375

0.625

0.625

0.875

0.875

0.375

0.625

1.125

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 12

September 13

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - August

94.6

94.6

94.8

Treasury Budget - August

-$100.0B

-112.8

-105.0

September 14

Export Prices -  August

-0.1%

0.2

-0.1

Import Prices

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

September 15

Initial Unemployment Claims

263

259

265

Retail Sales - August

0.0%

0.0

0.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

-0.3

0.3

Philadelphia Fed Survey

2.5

2.0

2.0

Producer Price Index - August

0.1%

-0.4

0.1

PPI Core (less food and energy)

0.1

-0.3

0.1

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

-1.25

-4.2

-1.00

Current Account - Q2

-$125.2B

-124.7

-122.5

Industrial Production - August

-0.3%

0.7

-0.2

Capacity Utilization

75.6

75.9

75.7

Manufacturing

-0.3

0.5

-0.3

Business Inventories - July

0.0%

0.2

0.1

September 16

Consumer Price Index - August

0.1%

0.0

0.1

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (p)

90.6

89.8

90.8

Week of September 19

September 19

NAHB Index

60

60

September 20

Housing Starts - August

1.195M

1.211

Building Permits

1.175

1.152

September 21

0.375%

0.375

FMOC

September 18

Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

0.15

0.27

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.5%

0.2

Existing Home Sales - August

5.400M

5.390

Leading Indicators

0.1%

0.4

September 23

PMI Manufacturing - Flash

52.0

52.0