Economic Forecast Data For The Weeks of December 12 And 19

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 12

December 12

Treasury Budget - November

-$125.0B

-44.2

-135.0

December 13

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

96.5

94.9

96.5

Export Prices -  November

-0.2%

0.2

0.0

Import Prices

-0.4

0.5

-0.4

December 14

Producer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.0

0.2

Retail Sales - November

0.5%

0.8

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.8

0.3

Industrial Production - November

-0.1%

0.0

-0.2

Manufacturing

-0.1

0.2

-0.1

Capacity Utilization

75.1

75.3

75.0

Business Inventories - October

-0.1%

0.1

0.0

FMOC

0.625%

0.325

0.625

December 15

Consumer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.4

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

258

255

Philadelphia Fed Survey

9.5

7.8

10.0

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

3.0

1.5

3.0

Current Account - Q3

-$112.0B

-119.9

-111.6

NAHB Index

63

63

63.00

December 16

Housing Starts - November

1.125M

1.323

1.230

Building Permits

1.130

1.229

1.240

Week of December 19

December 19

PMI Services Flash Index

54.0

54.6

December 21

Existing Home Sales - November

5.500M

5.6

5.570

December 22

Durable Goods Orders - November

-3.3%

4.6

-3.1

GDP - Q3 (f)

3.3%

3.2

3.3

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.4

1.4

Personal Income - November

0.3%

0.6

0.3

Personal Spending

0.5

0.3

0.4

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November

54.2

57.6

FHFA Housing Price Index  - Oct

0.5%

0.6

Leading Indicators - Nobember

0.2

0.1

December 23

New Home Sales - November

580K

563

570

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)

98.0

98.0