Economic Data Forecasts For Weeks Of March 27 And April 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 27

March 27

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

23.0

24.5

22.0

March 28

International Trade in Goods - January

-$66.9B

-69.2

-66.5

S&P Case/Shiller Index - January

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.3

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.8

0.9

0.8

Twenty City Y/Y

5.6

5.6

5.7

PMI Services Flash Index

54.2

53.8

Consumer Confidence Index - March

113.7

114.8

113.5

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15.0

17

15.0

March 29

Pending Home Sale Index - February

108.0

106.4

108.3

March 30

Initial Unemployment Claims

245K

258

247

GDP - Q4 (f)

2.0%

1.9

2.0

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.0

2.0

2.0

March 31

Personal Income - February

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.2

0.2

0.2

Chicago PMI - March

57.0

57.4

57.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)

97.6

97.6

97.6

Week of April 3

April 3

ISM (Mfg) - March

56.7

55.7

Construction Spending - February

0.7%

0.5

April 4

Auto Sales* - March

17.8M

17.58

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Factory Orders - February

1.1%

1.2

Durable Goods Orders

1.7

2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.4

April 5

ADP Employment Report - March

200K

298

ISM Services - March

57.1

57.6

April 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

200K

235

Private

205

227

Manufacturing

17

28

Unemployment

4.7%

4.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

Wholesale Inventories - February

0.2%

-0.2

Wholesale Sales

Consumer Credit - February

$15.0B

8.8