Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 23 And 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 23

September 23

Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

-0.20

-0.36

-0.06

PMI Manufacturing - Flash

50.5

50.3

50.1

PMI Services Flash

51.4

50.7

51.4

September 24

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3

0.4

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.1

0.0

0.1

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.2

2.1

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.2%

0.2

0.2

Consumer Confidence - September

134.1

135.1

133.6

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1

1.0

-2

September 25

New Home Sales - August

645K

635

665

September 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

208

211

GDP - Q2

2.0%

2.0

2.0

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.4

2.4

2.4

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

106.5

105.6

106.2

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-3

-3

-6

September 27

Durable Goods Sales - August

-1.0%

2.0

-1.2

Personal Income - August

0.4%

0.1

0.4

Personal Spending

0.3

0.6

0.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

92.0

92.0

92.0

Week of September 30

September 30

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

3.2

2.7

Chicago PMI - September

50.6

50.4

October 1

PMI Manufacturing Index

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

50.6

49.1

Construction Spending - August

0.34

0.1

October 2

ADP Employment Report - September

140K

195

Auto Sales* - September

17.1M

17.0

Car Sales

4.7

4.6

Truck Sales

12.4

12.3

October 3

PMI Services Index

ISM Services - September

55.0

56.4

October 4

International Trade - August

-$54.8B

-54.0

Factory Orders - August

-0.7%

1.4

Durable Goods Orders

-1.0

2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.8

October 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

140K

130

Private

130

96

Manufacturing

4

3

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4