Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 21

September 21

Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

1.18

1.18

September 22

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

12.0

18.0

Existing Home Sales - August

5.950M

5.860

6.000

September 23

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.3%

0.9

PMI Manufacturing - Flash

53.1

53.1

53.2

PMI Services Flash

54.7

55.0

54.7

September 24

Initial Unemployment Claims

850K

860

845

New Home Sales - August

860K

901

900

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

14

14

September 25

Durable Goods Sales - August

2.0%

11.4

1.5

Week of September 28

September 28

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

8.5

8.0

September 29

International Trade in Goods - August

-$83.3B

-79.3

Wholesale Inventories - August (a)

0.0%

-0.3

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.0

Twenty City Y/Y

3.6

3.5

Consumer Confidence - September

90.0

84.8

September 30

ADP Employment Report - September

500K

428

GDP - Q2

-31.7%

-31.7

Chicago PMI - September

52.2

51.2

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

122.1

122.1

October 1

Initial Unemployment Claims

Personal Income - August

-1.5%

0.4

Personal Spending

1.0

1.9

PCE Price Index

0.4

0.3

Core PCE Price Index

0.4

0.3

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

55.5

56.0

Construction Spending - August

0.7%

0.1

Auto Sales* - September

15.9M

15.2

Car Sales

3.6

3.5

Truck Sales

11.8

11.7

October 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

1000K

1371

Private

1150

1027

Manufacturing

40

29

Unemployment

8.3

8.4

Average Workweek

34.6HR

34.6

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4

Factory Orders - August

1.5%

6.4

Durable Goods Orders

2.0

11.4

Nondurable Goods Orders

1.0

1.8

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

78.2

78.2