Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 16 And 23

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 16

September 16

New York Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

4.8

4.9

September 17

Industrial Production - August

0.3%

-0.2

0.1

Capacity Utilization

77.7

77.5

77.5

Manufacturing

0.2

-0.4

0.1

NAHB Index

66

66

66

September 18

Housing Starts - August

1.250M

1.191

1.250

Building Permits

1.300

1.336

1.300

FMOC

1.875%

2.125

1.875

September 19

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

203

215

Philadelphia Fed Survey

11.5

16.8

11.3

Current Account - Q2

-$128.5B

-130.4

-131.4

Existing Home Sales - August

5.410K

5.420

5.375

Leading Indicators

0.2

0.5

0.1

Week of September 23

September 23

Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

-0.1

-0.36

PMI Manufacturing - Flash

51.3

50.3

PMI Services Flash

51.4

50.7

September 24

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Ten City Y/Y

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.1

0.0

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.2

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.2%

0.2

Consumer Confidence - September

134.1

135.1

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1.0

1.0

September 25

New Home Sales - August

640K

635

September 26

GDP - Q2

2.0%

2.0

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.4

2.4

International Trade in Goods - August

-$73.3B

-72.3

Wholesale Inventories - August (a)

0.2

0.2

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

105.6

105.6

September 27

Durable Goods Sales - August

0.5

2.0

Personal Income - August

0.4%

0.1

Personal Spending

0.3

0.6