Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Sept. 28 And Oct. 5

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 28

September 28

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

8.5

8.0

September 29

International Trade in Goods - August

-$83.3B

-79.3

Wholesale Inventories - August (a)

0.0%

-0.3

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3

0.0

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

3.7

3.5

3.8

Consumer Confidence - September

90.0

84.8

89.2

September 30

ADP Employment Report - September

500K

428

605

GDP - Q2

-31.7%

-31.7

-31.7

Chicago PMI - September

52.2

51.2

52.0

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

122.7

122.1

126.0

October 1

Initial Unemployment Claims

850K

870

850

Personal Income - August

-1.5%

0.4

-2.2

Personal Spending

1.0

1.9

0.7

Core PCE Price Index

0.4

0.3

0.3

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

55.5

56.0

56.2

Construction Spending - August

0.7%

0.1

0.8

Auto Sales - September

15.9M

15.2

Car Sales

3.6

3.5

Truck Sales

11.8

11.7

October 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

1000K

1371

850

Private

1150

1027

875

Manufacturing

40

29

35

Unemployment

8.3%

8.4

8.2

Average Workweek

34.6HR

34.6

34.6

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4

0.2

Factory Orders - August

0.9%

6.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

78.9

78.9

78.9

Week of October 5

October 5

PMI Services Index

54.6

ISM Services - September

56.3

56.9

October 6

International Trade - August

-$67.3B

-63.6

October 7

Consumer Credit - August

$15.0B

12.3