Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 26 And November 2

Peter Morici
Peter Morici
Professor Emeritus, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland •

Here are some of my prognostications for upcoming data releases, including GDP, Durable Goods, Non-Farm Payrolls.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

    

 

  
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

  

Week of October 26

      

 

  

October 26

      

 

  

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.60

0.79

  

 

  
       

 

  

New Home Sales - September

1015K

1011

1.025

 

  

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

13.5

13.6

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 27

      

 

  

Durable Goods Sales - September

-0.2%

0.5

0.3

 

  

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

21

  

 

  
       

 

  

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

      

 

  

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.6

  

 

  

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.6

0.5

 

  

Twenty City Y/Y

4.2

3.9

4.2

 

  
       

 

  

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.7%

1.0

  

 

  

Consumer Confidence

101.5

101.8

102.5

 

  

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

18

21

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 28

      

 

  

International Trade in Goods - September (a)

-$85.4B

-82.9

-84.0

 

  

Wholesale Inventories - September (a)

0.4%

0.4

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 29

      

 

  

Initial Unemployment Claims

785K

787

780

 

  
       

 

  

GDP - Q3 (a)

30.0%

-31.4

31.9

 

  

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

      

 

  
       

 

  

Pending Home Sale Index - September

132.8

132.8

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 30

      

 

  

Personal Income - September

0.4%

-2.7

0.5

 

  

Personal Spending

1.0

1.0

1

 

  
       

 

  

Chicago PMI

58.3

62.4

59.3

 

  
       

 

  

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.5%

0.5

  

 

  

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.7

  

 

  
       

 

  

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r)

81.2

81.2

81.2

 

  
       

 

  

Week of November 2

      

 

  

November 2

      

 

  

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

53.3

53.3

  

 

  

ISM (Mfg) - October

55.5

55.4

  

 

  
       

 

  

Construction Spending - September

1.0%

1.4

  

 

  
       

 

  

November 3

      

 

  

Factory Orders - September

0.3%

0.7

  

 

  

Durable Goods Orders

-0.2

0.5

  

 

  

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.7

0.8

  

 

  
       

 

  

Auto Sales* - September

16.40%

16.3

  

 

  

Car Sales

3.8

3.8

  

 

  

Truck Sales

12.6

12.6

  

 

  
       

 

  

November 4

      

 

  

ADP Employment Report - October

  

749

  

 

  

International Trade - September

-$70.3B

-67.1

  

 

  
       

 

  

PMI Services Index

56.0

56.0

  

 

  

ISM Services - October

57.8

57.8

  

 

  
       

 

  

Novenber 5

      

 

  

Productivity - Q3 (p)

3.3%

10.1

  

 

  

Unit Labor Costs

-9.8

9.0

  

 

  
       

 

  

November 6

      

 

  

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

800K

661

  

 

  

Private

875

887

  

 

  

Manufacturing

55

66

  

 

  

Unemployment

7.7%

7.9

  

 

  

Average Workweek

34.7HR

34.7

  

 

  

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

  

 

  
       

 

  

Consumer Credit - September

14.0M

7.2

  

 

  

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

    

 

  
 

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

  

Week of October 26

      

 

  

October 26

      

 

  

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.60

0.79

  

 

  
       

 

  

New Home Sales - September

1015K

1011

1.025

 

  

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

13.5

13.6

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 27

      

 

  

Durable Goods Sales - September

-0.2%

0.5

0.3

 

  

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

21

  

 

  
       

 

  

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

      

 

  

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.6

  

 

  

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.6

0.5

 

  

Twenty City Y/Y

4.2

3.9

4.2

 

  
       

 

  

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.7%

1.0

  

 

  

Consumer Confidence

101.5

101.8

102.5

 

  

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

18

21

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 28

      

 

  

International Trade in Goods - September (a)

-$85.4B

-82.9

-84.0

 

  

Wholesale Inventories - September (a)

0.4%

0.4

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 29

      

 

  

Initial Unemployment Claims

785K

787

780

 

  
       

 

  

GDP - Q3 (a)

30.0%

-31.4

31.9

 

  

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

      

 

  
       

 

  

Pending Home Sale Index - September

132.8

132.8

  

 

  
       

 

  

October 30

      

 

  

Personal Income - September

0.4%

-2.7

0.5

 

  

Personal Spending

1.0

1.0

1

 

  
       

 

  

Chicago PMI

58.3

62.4

59.3

 

  
       

 

  

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.5%

0.5

  

 

  

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.7

  

 

  
       

 

  

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r)

81.2

81.2

81.2

 

  
       

 

  

Week of November 2

      

 

  

November 2

      

 

  

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

53.3

53.3

  

 

  

ISM (Mfg) - October

55.5

55.4

  

 

  
       

 

  

Construction Spending - September

1.0%

1.4

  

 

  
       

 

  

November 3

      

 

  

Factory Orders - September

0.3%

0.7

  

 

  

Durable Goods Orders

-0.2

0.5

  

 

  

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.7

0.8

  

 

  
       

 

  

Auto Sales* - September

16.40%

16.3

  

 

  

Car Sales

3.8

3.8

  

 

  

Truck Sales

12.6

12.6

  

 

  
       

 

  

November 4

      

 

  

ADP Employment Report - October

  

749

  

 

  

International Trade - September

-$70.3B

-67.1

  

 

  
       

 

  

PMI Services Index

56.0

56.0

  

 

  

ISM Services - October

57.8

57.8

  

 

  
       

 

  

Novenber 5

      

 

  

Productivity - Q3 (p)

3.3%

10.1

  

 

  

Unit Labor Costs

-9.8

9.0

  

 

  
       

 

  

November 6

      

 

  

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

800K

661

  

 

  

Private

875

887

  

 

  

Manufacturing

55

66

  

 

  

Unemployment

7.7%

7.9

  

 

  

Average Workweek

34.7HR

34.7

  

 

  

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

  

 

  
       

 

  

Consumer Credit - September

14.0M

7.2

  

 

  
       

 

  
 

 		      

 

  
 

 

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