| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of October 25 | |||
| October 25 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.35 | 0.29 | |
| October 26 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - August | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 1.5% | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 20.0 | 19.7 | 20.1 |
| Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA | |||
| FHFA House Price Index - August | 1.4% | 1.4 | |
| Consumer Confidence | 109.0 | 109.3 | 108.8 |
| New Home Sales - September | 775K | 740 | 775 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 6.0 | -3.0 | |
| October 27 | |||
| Durable Goods Sales - September | -0.9% | 1.8 | -1.0 |
| International Trade in Goods - September (a) | -$86.0B | -87.6 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - September (a) | 1.0% | 1.2 | |
| October 28 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 290K | 290 | 292.000 |
| GDP - Q3 (a) | 2.9% | 6.7 | 2.8 |
| Pending Home Sale Index - September | 118.0 | 119.5 | 118.6 |
| October 29 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q3 | 0.8% | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 0.2 | 2.9 | |
| Personal Income - September | 0.4% | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Personal Spending | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Chicago PMI | 64.2 | 64.7 | 64.0 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r) | 71.4 | 71.4 | 71.6 |
| Week of November 1 | |||
| Novenber 1 | |||
| Construction Spending - September | 0.5% | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - October | 59.2 | 59.2 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - October | 60.1 | 61.1 | 60.5 |
| November 2 | |||
| Auto Sales - October | 12.3M | 12.2 | |
| Car Sales | 2.6 | 2.6 | |
| Truck Sales | 9.7 | 9.5 | |
| November 3 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - October | 380K | 568 | 375 |
| PMI Services Index | 58.2 | 58.2 | |
| ISM Services - October | 61.9 | 61.9 | 61.4 |
| Factory Orders - September | -0.3% | 1.2 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | -0.9 | 1.8 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.3 | 0.6 | |
| FMOC | 0.125 | 0.125 | |
| November 4 | |||
| Productivity - Q3 (p) | -1.1% | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 4.1 | 1.3 | |
| International Trade - September | -$71.3B | -73.3 | -74.1 |
| November 5 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - October | 390K | 194 | 385 |
| Private | 380 | 317 | 365 |
| Manufacturing | 36 | 26 | 29 |
| Unemployment | 4.8% | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Average Workweek | 34.8 | 34.8 | 25 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| *Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services | |||
| Consumer Credit - September | 15K | 14.4 | 15.2 |
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 25 And November 1
My prognosis for upcoming data releases, including Case/Shiller, Consumer Confidence, Factory Orders, and FMOC.
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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