Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 21

October 22

Existing Home Sales - September

5.430M

5.490

5.450

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-7

-9

-9

October 23

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.4%

0.4

0.4

October 24

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

214

214

Durable Goods Sales - September

-1.5%

0.2

-0.7

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

50.5

51.1

50.5

PMI Services Flash Index

51.0

50.9

51.0

New Home Sales - September

680K

713

699

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-2.0

October 25

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r)

96.0

96

96.0

Week of October 28

October 28

International Trade in Goods - September (a)

-73.5

-72.8

Wholesale Inventories - September (a)

0.3

0.2

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.10

0.10

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

2.0

1.5

October 29

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.4

0.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

-0.1

0.0

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.0

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

Consumer Confidence

125.1

125.1

Pending Home Sale Index - September

107.3

107.3

October 30

ADP Employment Report - October

95

135.0

GDP - Q3 (a)

1.8%

2.0

FOMC

1.625%

1.875

October 31

Initial Unemployment Claims

Personal Income - September

0.3%

0.4

Personal Spending

0.3

0.3

PCE Price Index

Core PCE Price Index

Real Personal Spending

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.6%

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.7

2.7

Chicago PMI

47.6

47.1

November 1

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

100K

136K

Private

90

114

Core Private*

Manufacturing

-50

-2

Unemployment

3.50%

3.5

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.0

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

ISM (Mfg) - October

49.0

47.8

Construction Spending - September

0.2%

0.1