Economic Data Forecasts for the Weeks of October 19 and 26

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 19

October 19

NAHB Index

83

83

82

October 20

Housing Starts - September

1.475M

1.416

1445

October 22

Initial Unemployment Claims

875K

898

861

Leading Indicators

0.9%

1.2

0.8

Existing Home Sales - September

6.400M

6.000

6.184

October 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

53.2

53.1

PMI Services Flash Index

54.6

54.6

Week of October 26

October 26

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.60

0.79

New Home Sales - September

1000K

1011

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

13.5

13.6

October 27

Durable Goods Sales - September

1.8%

0.5

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

21

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.6

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

4.2

3.9

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.7%

1.0

Consumer Confidence

101.5

101.8

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

18

21

October 28

International Trade in Goods - September (a)

-$85.4B

-82.9

Wholesale Inventories - September (a)

0.3%

0.4

October 29

GDP - Q3 (a)

30.0%

-31.4

Pending Home Sale Index - September

132.8

132.8

October 30

Personal Income - September

0.5%

-2.7

Personal Spending

0.0%

1.0

Chicago PMI

58.0

62.4

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.5%

0.5

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.7

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Oct (r)

81.2

81.2