Economic Data Forecasts for the Weeks of November 2 and 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 2

November 2

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

53.3

53.3

ISM (Mfg) - October

55.5

55.4

55.8

Construction Spending - September

1.0%

0.9

0.9

November 3

Factory Orders - September

1.0%

0.7

1.0

Durable Goods Orders

1.5

0.5

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.8

Auto Sales* - September

16.5%

16.3

Car Sales

3.8

3.8

Truck Sales

12.7

12.6

November 4

ADP Employment Report - October

600

749

650

International Trade - September

-$64.4B

-67.1

-64.0

PMI Services Index

56.0

56.0

ISM Services - October

57.8

57.8

57.5

November 5

Initial Unemployment Claims

710K

751

733

Productivity - Q3 (p)

5.0%

10.1

Unit Labor Costs

-16.0

9.0

November 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

775K

661

600

Private

875

887

700

Manufacturing

55

66

50

Unemployment

7.7%

7.9

7.6

Average Workweek

34.7HR

34.7

34.7

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.2

Wholesale Inventories - September

-0.1%

-0.1

-0.1

Consumer Credit - September

14.0M

7.2

8.5

Week of November 9

November 12

Consumer Price Index - October

0.2%

0.2

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - October

-$290.0B

-124.6

November 13

Producer Price Index - October

0.2%

0.4

0.2