Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 18 And 25

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 18

November 19

Housing Starts - October

1.280M

1.256

1.320

Building Permits

1.385

1.391

1.380

NAHB Index

70

71

71

November 21

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

225

219

Philadelphia Fed Survey

8.0

5.6

7.5

Existing Home Sales - October

5.490M

5.380

Leading Indicators

0.0%

-0.1

-0.1

November 22

PMI Services Flash Index

51.0

50.6

51.2

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

52.0

51.3

51.6

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - Nov(r)

95.7

95.7

95.7

Week of November 25

November 25

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October

-0.20

-0.45

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-5.1

November 26

International Trade in Goods - October

-$71.0B

-70.4

Wholesale Inventories - October (p)

0.3%

-0.4

FHFA Housing Price Index - Sept

0.3

0.2

New Home Sales - October

690K

701

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

2

8

Consumer Confidence - November

126.5

125.9

S&P Case/Shiller Index - September

Twenty City M/M

-0.2

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3%

-0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

1.8

2.0

November 27

Durable Goods Sales - October

-0.5%

-1.2

GDP - Q3 (r)

1.9%

1.9

Personal Income - October

0.3%

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.2

Pending Home Sale Index - October

108.0

108.7

Chicago PMI

50.0

43.2

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryla