| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of November 23 | |||
| November 23 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October | 0.27 | 0.27 | |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 56.0 | 56.0 | 53.0 |
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 53.0 | 53.4 | 55.3 |
| November 24 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - September | |||
| Twenty City M/M | -0.3% | 1.1 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.7 | 0.5 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| FHFA Housing Price Index - Sept | 1.0% | 1.5 | |
| Consumer Confidence - November | 101.5 | 100.9 | 98.0 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 21.0 | 29 | |
| November 25 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 750K | 742 | 728 |
| Durable Goods Sales - October | 1.2% | 1.9 | 1 |
| International Trade in Goods - October | -$81.0B | -79.4 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - October (p) | 0.2% | 0.4 | |
| GDP - Q3 (r) | 33.5% | 33.1 | 33.1 |
| Personal Income - October | 0.2% | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| New Home Sales - October | 970K | 959 | 975 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r) | 77.0 | 77.0 | 77.1 |
| Week of November 30 | |||
| November 30 | |||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 14.0 | 19.8 | |
| Pending Home Sale Index - October | 127.5 | 130.0 | |
| Chicago PMI | 59.8 | 61.1 | |
| December 1 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - November | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - November | 57.4 | 59.3 | 58.0 |
| Construction Spending - October | 0.5% | 0.3 | |
| Auto Sales - November | 16.4M | 16.2 | |
| Car Sales | 3.8 | 3.8 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.6 | 12.4 | |
| December 2 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - November | 500K | 365 | |
| December 3 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | |||
| ISM Services - November | 56.6 | 56.6 | 56.5 |
| December 4 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - November | 700K | 638 | |
| Private | 800 | 906 | 655 |
| Manufacturing | 50K | 38 | |
| Unemployment | 6.9% | 6.9 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.8 | 34.8 | 34.8 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| International Trade - October | -$65.4B | -63.9 | |
| Factory Orders - October | 1.0% | 1.1 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.2 | 1.9 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.7 | 0.3 | |
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Nov. 23 And 30
Projections for upcoming data releases, including Case/Shiller, Wholesale Inventories, GDP, PMI.
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. Follow him on Twitter @PMorici1.
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