| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of November 22 | |||
| November 22 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October | 0.1 | -0.13 | |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 58.7 | 58.7 | 59.1 |
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 58.4 | 58.4 | 59.0 |
| Existing Home Sales - October | 6.150M | 6.290 | 6.200 |
| November 23 | |||
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 11 | 12 | |
| November 24 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 266K | 268 | 264 |
| Durable Goods Sales - October | 0.4% | -0.3 | 0.2 |
| International Trade in Goods - October | -92.3 | -96.3 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - October (p) | 1.4 | ||
| GDP - Q3 (r) | 2.2% | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Personal Income - October | 0.4% | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| Personal Spending | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| PCE Price Index | 0.3 | ||
| New Home Sales - October | 820K | 800 | 800 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r) | 66.8 | 66.8 | 67.0 |
| Week of November 29 | |||
| November 29 | |||
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 14.60 | 14.6 | |
| Pending Home Sale Index - October | 117.0 | 116.7 | 118.2 |
| November 30 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - September | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 1.0% | 0.9 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.0 | 1.2 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 19.3 | 19.7 | |
| FHFA Housing Price Index - Sept | 1.0% | 1.0 | |
| Consumer Confidence - November | 109.8 | 113.8 | 112 |
| Chicago PMI | 68.4 | 68.4 | |
| December 1 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - November | 420K | 571 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - November | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - November | 60.8 | 60.8 | |
| Construction Spending - October | 0.8% | -0.5 | |
| Auto Sales - November | 13.1M | 13.1 | |
| Car Sales | 2.8 | 2.6 | |
| Truck Sales | 10.3 | 10.4 | |
| December 3 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - November | 480K | 531 | 500 |
| Private | 460 | 604 | 483 |
| Manufacturing | 50 | 60 | 48 |
| Unemployment | 4.5% | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Average Workweek | 34.7HR | 34.7 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| PMI Services Index - November | |||
| ISM Services - November | 66.7 | 66.7 | 65.5 |
| Factory Orders - October | 0.5% | 0.2 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.4 | -0.3 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.0 | 0.8 |
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Nov. 22 And 29
My expectations for upcoming data releases including Durable Goods, Case/Shiller, ADP Employment, Nonfarm Payrolls.
Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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