Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Nov. 16 & 23

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 16

November 16

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

13.5

10.5

13.5

November 17

Retail Sales - October

0.6%

1.9

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

1.5

0.6

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.8

1.5

Retail Sales, Autos

Industrial Production - October

1.4%

-0.6

1.0

Capacity Utilization

72.7

71.5

72.2

Manufacturing

1.2

-0.3

1.0

Business Inventories - September

0.5%

0.3

0.5

NAHB Index

85

85

85

Export Prices -  October

0.3%

0.6

0.3

Import Prices

0.2

0.3

0.2

November 18

Housing Starts - October

1.470M

1.415

1.460

Building Permits

1.570

1.553

1.560

November 19

Initial Unemployment Claims

690K

709

705

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.0

32.3

24.0

Existing Home Sales - October

6.470M

6.540

6.450

Leading Indicators

0.7%

0.7

0.7

Week of November 23

November 23

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October

0.27

0.27

PMI Services Flash Index

56.0

56.0

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

53.0

53.4

November 24

S&P Case/Shiller Index - September

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

1.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.5

0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

4.6

5.2

FHFA Housing Price Index  - Sept

1.0%

1.5

Consumer Confidence - November

101.5

100.9

99.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

21.0

29

November 25

Initial Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Sales - October

1.6%

1.9

International Trade in Goods - October

-$81.0B

-79.4

Wholesale Inventories - October (p)

0.2%

0.4

GDP - Q3 (r)

33.2%

33.1

33.2

PCE Core Deflator

Personal Income - October

0.3%

0.9

0.6

Personal Spending

0.7

1.4

0.7

New Home Sales - October

970K

959

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r)

78.0

77.0

78.5