Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 4 And 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 4

May 4

Factory Orders - March

-12.2%

0

-9.8

Durable Goods Orders

14.4

1.2

Nondurable Goods Orders

-10.0

-1.2

May 5

International Trade - March

-$43.7B

-39.9

-44.2

PMI Services Index

27.0

27.0

ISM Services - April

38.0

52.5

May 6

ADP Employment Report - April

-22500K

-27

-20000

May 7

Initial Jobless Claims

2000K

3.839

3000

Productivity - Q1 (p)

-6.0%

1.2

-5.5

Unit Labor Costs

9.0

0.9

4.0

Consumer Credit - March

$15.0B

22.3

15.00

May 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

-22500K

-701

-21000

Private

-22500

-713

-21375

Manufacturing

-2700

-18

-2000

Unemployment

17%

4.4

16.0

Average Workweek

34.0HR

34.2

33.7

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4

0.4

Wholesale Inventories - March

1.0%

-1.0

-1.0

Week of May 12

May 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism - April

96.4

96.4

Consumer Price Index - April

-0.6%

-0.4

-0.6

Core CPI

0.2

-0.1

-0.2

Treasury Budget - April

$850B

-119.1

May 13

Producer Price Index - April

-0.3%

-0.2

-0.4

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

-0.2

May 14

Export Prices - April

-3.9%

-1.6

Import Prices

-2.5

-2.1

-2.5

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

-0.5

-0.1

May 15

Retail Sales - April

-10.0%

-8.7

-10.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos

-5.0

-4.5

Retail Sales,ex autos and gas

-5.0

-3.1

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

-50.0

-78.2

-70.0

Industrial Production - April

-15.0%

-5

Capacity Utilization

-62.7

72.7

Manufacturing

Business Inventories - March

-0.5%

-0.4

JOLTS

6.882

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p)

60.0

71.8