Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 27 And June 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 27

May 28

S&P Case/Shiller Index - March

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.2

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

2.2

3.0

2.5

FHFA Housing Price Index - March

0.3%

0.3

Consumer Confidence

131.0

129.2

129.8

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

6.0

2.0

7.0

May 29

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

6

3

6

May 30

Initial Jobless Claims

218K

211

215

GDP - Q1 (p)

3.0%

3.2

3.0

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

0.9

0.9

0.9

International Trade in Goods - April

-$71.5B

-71.4

-72.0

Wholesale Inventories (a) - April

0.3%

-0.1

Pending Home Sale Index - April

103.9

105.8

105.8

May 31

Personal Income - April

0.3%

0.1

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.9

0.2

PCE Price Index

0.3

0.2

0.3

Core PCE Price Index

0.2%

0.0

0.2

Real Personal Spending

Chicago PMI - May

53.7

52.6

53.7

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r)

102.0

102.4

101.0

Week of June 3

June 3

Auto Sales* - May

16.9K

16.4

Car Sales

5.1

4.8

Truck Sales

11.8

11.6

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

PMI Manufacturing Index - May

50.6

50.6

ISM (Mfg) - May

53.5

52.8

53.5

Construction Spending - April

0.5%

-0.9

June 4

Factory Orders - April

-0.9%

1.9

-0.8

Durable Goods Orders

-2.1

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

1.1

June 5

ADP Employment Report

175K

275

203

PMI Services Index

50.9

50.9

ISM Services - May

55.8

55.5

55.9

June 6

International Trade - April

-$50.1B

-50.0

-46.2

Productivity - Q1 (r)

3.5%

3.6

3.5

Unit Labor Costs

-0.8

-0.9

-0.9

June 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - May

180K

263

190

Private

175K

236

188

Manufacturing

8

4

5

Unemployment

3.6

3.6

3.7

Average Workweek

34.5

34.4

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2

0.2

0.3

Wholesale Inventories - April

0.3%

-0.1

0.3

Consumer Credit - April

$16.0B

10.3

12.0