Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 25 And June 1

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 25

May 26

S&P Case/Shiller Index - March

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

0.5

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

3.4

3.5

FHFA Housing Price Index - March

0.6%

0.7

Consumer Confidence

90.0

86.9

88.0

New Home Sales - April

530K

627

490

Richmond Fed Index

-40.0

-53.0

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

-65.0

-73.7

May 28

Initial Unemployment Claims

2138K

2438

2100

Durable Goods Sales - April

-18.2%

-15.3

-18.5

GDP - Q1 (p)

-4.8%

-4.8

-4.8

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.3

1.3

1.3

Pending Home Sale Index - April

70.0

88.2

75.0

May 29

International Trade in Goods - April

-$51.0B

-64.4

Wholesale Inventories (a) - April

-2.0%

-0.8

Personal Income - April

-6.0%

-2.0

-6.5

Personal Spending

-14.5

-7.5

-12.5

Chicago PMI - May

40.0

35.4

40.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r)

73.7

73.7

74.0

Week of June 1

June 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - May

40.8

39.8

ISM (Mfg) - May

42.5

41.5

Construction Spending - April

-8.0%

0.9

June 2

Auto Sales* - May

10.0M

8.6

June 3

ISM Services - May

45.0

41.8

Factory Orders - April

-15.1%

-10.3

Durable Goods Orders

-18.2

-14.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

-12.0

-5.8

June 4

International Trade - April

-$34.4B

-44.4

Productivity - Q1 (r)

-2.3%

-2.5

Unit Labor Costs

4.6

4.8

June 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - May

-9325K

-20500

Private

-8325

-19520

Unemployment

19.8%

14.7

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.2

Average Hourly Earnings

4.7

Consumer Credit - April

-$60.0B

-12.1