Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 6 And March 13

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 6

March 6

Factory Orders - January

1.2%

1.3

1.1

Durable Goods Orders

1.8

-0.5

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

3.1

March 7

International Trade - January

-$48.5B

-44.3

-48.5

Consumer Credit - January

$19.B

14.2

18.3

March 8

ADP Employment Report - February

185K

246K

183

Productivity - Q(4) - revised

1.4%

1.3

1.4

Unit Labor Cost

1.6

1.7

1.6

Wholesale Inventories - January

0.0%

0.9

-0.1

March 9

Initial Jobless Claims

240K

223

238

Export Prices - February

0.0%

0.1

0.2

Import Prices

0.1

0.4

0.2

March 10

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

185K

227

195

Private

190

237

190

Core Private*

Unemployment

4.7%

4.8

4.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Treasury Budget - February

-$193.0B

51.3

-181.5

Week of March 13

March 14

Producer Price Index - February

0.1%

0.4

PPI Core

0.2

0.2

March 15

Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

0.6

CPI Core

0.2

0.3

Retail Sales - February

0.2%

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.2

0.8

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

16

18.7

Business Inventories - January

0.3%

0.3

NAHB Index - March

66

65

FMOC

0.625%

0.625

March 16

Housing Starts - February

1.260M

1.246

Building Permits

1.280

1.285

Philadelphia Fed Survey

28.0

43.3

March 17

Industrial Production - February

0.3%

-0.3

Capacity Utilization

75.6

75.4

Leading Indicators - February

0.2%

0.6

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)

96.8

96.3