Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 4 And March 11

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 4

March 4

Construction Spending - December

0.3%

0.8

0.6

March 5

ISM Services Index

57.5

56.7

57.2

New Home Sales - December

600K

657

591

Treasury Budget - January

$2.0B

-13.5

0.0

March 6

ADP Employment Report - February

170K

213

180

International Trade - December

-$57.9B

-49.3

-57.6

March 7

Initial Jobless Claims

225K

225

225

Productivity - Q(4) -

1.7%

2.2

1.6

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

0.9

1.8

Consumer Credit - January

$17.0B

16.6

17.3

March 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

180K

304

178

Private

170

296

175

Manufacturing

15

13

10

Unemployment

3.9%

4.0

3.9

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

Housing Starts - January

1.178M

1.078

1.170

Building Permits

1.300

1.326

1.280

Week of March 12

March 11

Business Inventories - December

0.8%

-0.1

Retail Sales - January

0.5%

-1.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.9

-1.8

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

1.2

-1.4

March 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

102.5

101.2

Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

0.0

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

March 13

Durable Goods Orders - January

-0.8%

1.2

Producer Price Index - February

0.2%

-0.1

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

March 14

Export Prices - February

0.0%

-0.6

Import Prices

0.3

-0.5

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

-0.2

-0.7

March 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

9.0

8.8

Industrial Production - February

1.2%

-0.6

Capacity Utilization

79.0

78.2

Manufacturing Output

0.4

-0.9

Construction Spending - January

JOLTS - January

7.335M

7.335