Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 25 And April 1

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 25

March 25

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February

-0.10

-0.43

0.10

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

12.0

13.1

10.0

March 26

S&P Case/Shiller Index - January

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

-0.2

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.2

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

3.8

4.2

4.2

Housing Starts - February

1.200M

1.230

1.201

Building Permits

1.290

1.345

1.300

FHFA Housing Price Index - January

0.3%

0.3

0.3

Consumer Confidence Index - March

133.0

131.4

132.5

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

14.0

16.0

11.0

March 27

International Trade - January

-$57.7

-59.8

-57.4

Current Account - Q4

-$132.5B

-124.8

-132.1

March 28

Initial Unemployment Claims

225K

221

225

GDP - Q4 (f)

2.2

2..6

2.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.8

1.8

1.8

PCE

Pending Home Sale Index - February

100.1

103.2

102.2

March 29

Personal Income - February

0.3%

-0.1

0.3

Personal Spending - January

0.4

-0.5

0.3

New Home Sales - February

607K

607

616

Chicago PMI - March

60.7

64.7

60.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)

97.8

97.8

97.8

Week of April 1

April 1

ISM (Mfg) - March

54.7

54.2

54.5

Business Inventories - January

0.5%

0.6

0.3

Construction Spending - February

0.1%

1.3

Retail Sales - February

0.4%

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

0.9

0.3

April 2

Durable Good Orders - February

-0.5%

0.2

-1.1

Auto Sales* - March

16.8M

16.5

16.6

Car Sales

5.0

4.8

Truck Sales

11.8

11.7

April 3

ADP Employment Report - March

165

183

173

ISM Services - March

58.2

59.7

59.3

April 4

April 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

175K

20

181

Private

165

25

176

Manufacturing

8

4

13

Unemployment

3.9%

3.8

3.8

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Consumer Credit - February

$17.0B

17.0

15.0