Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks of March 23 and March 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 23

March 23

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February

-0.60

-0.25

March 24

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

45.0

50.7

43.0

PMI Services Flash Index

45.0

49.4

42.0

New Home Sales - February

740K

764

750.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-4

-2

March 25

Durable Goods Orders - February

-1.0%

-0.2

-0.7

FHFA Housing Price Index - January

0.5%

0.6

March 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

1000K

281

775

International Trade in Goods - February

-$62.0B

-65.5

Wholesale Inventories (a) - February

-0.5%

-0.4

GDP - Q4 (f)

2.1%

2.1

2.1

March 27

Personal Income - February

0.4%

0.6

0.4

Personal Spending - February

0.2

0.2

0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)

91.0

95.9

90.0

Week of March 30

March 30

Pending Home Sale Index - February

108.8

108.8

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-7.0

1.2

March 31

S&P Case/Shiller Index - January

Ten City M/M

Ten City Y/Y

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

3.1

2.9

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

Chicago PMI - March

40.0

49.0

Consumer Confidence Index - March

120.0

130.7

April 1

ADP Employment Report - March

-360

183

ISM (Mfg) - March

43.5

50.1

Construction Spending - February

0.5%

1.8

Auto Sales* - March

15.2K

16.8

Car Sales

3.6

4.3

Truck Sales

11.6

12.6

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

April 2

Initial Unemployment Claims

International Trade - February

-$43.3B

-45.3

April 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

-350K

273

Private

-360

228

Unemployment

3.9%

3.5

Average Workweek

33.0HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

ISM Services - March

48.0

57.3