Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 22 And 29


Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of March 22
March 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - February	0.85	0.66
Existing Home Sales - February	6.490M	6.690	6.490

March 23
Current Account - Q4	-$184.2B	-178.5	-188.5

New Home Sales - February	860K	923	880
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	14	14

March 24
Durable Goods Orders - February	-0.5%	3.4	0.8

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	59.0	58.6	59.4
PMI Services Flash Index	60.0	59.8	60.2

March 25
Initial Unemployment Claims	745K	770	730

GDP - Q4 (f)	4.4%	4.1	4.1
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index	27	24

March 26
International Trade in Goods - February	-$84.8B	-84.6
Wholesale Inventories (a) - February	1.2%	1.3

Personal Income - February	-7.2%	10.5	-7.3
Personal Spending - February	0.0	2.4	-0.7
Core PCE Price Index	0.3	0.4
PCE Price Index	0.1	0.3	0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (f)	83.0	83.0	83.5

Week of March 29
March 29
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	12.5	17.2

March 30
S&P Case/Shiller Index - January
Twenty City M/M	0.8%	0.8
Twenty City M/M - SA	1.2	1.3
Twenty City Y/Y	11.0	10.1

FHFA Housing Price Index - January	0.8%	1.1
Consumer Confidence Index - March	93.1	91.3

March 31
ADP Employment Report - March	385K	117
Chicago PMI - March	60.0	59.5
Pending Home Sale Index - February	120.0	122.8

April 1
ISM (Mfg) - March	59.8	60.8
ISM Prices

Construction Spending - February	-0.8%	1.7

Auto Sales* - March	15.8M	15.7
Car Sales	3.5	3.4
Truck Sales	12.3	12.2

Nonfarm Payrolls - March	480K	379
Private	470	465
Manufacturing	40	21
Unemployment	6.1%	6.2
Average Workweek	34.8HR	34.6
Average Hourly Earnings	0.2%	0.2

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