Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 2 And March 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 2

March 2

PMI Manufacturing Index - February

50.8

50.8

ISM (Mfg) - February

50.3

50.9

50.5

Construction Spending - January

0.6%

-0.2

0.7

March 3

Auto Sales - February

16.8M

16.8

Car Sales

4.4

4.6

Truck Sales

12.4

12.2

March 4

ADP Employment Report - February

155K

291

170

PMI Services Index - February

49.4

49.4

ISM Services Index

55.5

55.5

55.0

March 5

Initial Jobless Claims

215K

219

215

Productivity - Q(4) - r

1.4%

1.4

1.4

Unit Labor Cost

1.4

1.4

1.4

Factory Orders - January

0.0%

1.8

-0.2

Durable Goods Orders

-0.2

2.4

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

1.1

March 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

170K

225.0

175

Private

155

206

160

Manufacturing

-5

-12

-2

Unemployment

3.5%

3.6

3.6

Average Workweek

34.3HR

34.3

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

International Trade - January

-$46.1B

-48.9

Wholesale Inventories - January

-0.2%

-0.2

-0.2

Consumer Credit - January

$17.0B

22.1

17.0

Week of March 10

March 10

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

103.5

104.3

March 11

Consumer Price Index - February

-0.1%

0.1

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - January

-$238.5B

-32.6

March 12

Producer Price Index - February

0.0%

0.5

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.4

March 13

Export Prices - February

-0.3%

0.7

Import Prices

-0.7

0.0

Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)

101.0

101.0