Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 3

June 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - May

50.6

50.6

50.6

ISM (Mfg) - May

51.5

52.8

52.9

Construction Spending - April

0.5%

-0.9

0.5

June 4

Auto Sales* - May

16.9K

16.4

16.9

Car Sales

5.1

4.8

Truck Sales

11.8

11.6

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Factory Orders - April

-0.9%

1.9

-0.9

Durable Goods Orders

-2.1

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

1.1

June 5

ADP Employment Report

175K

275

175

PMI Services Index

50.9

50.9

50.9

ISM Services - May

55.8

55.5

55.7

June 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

215

215

International Trade - April

-$50.8B

-50.0

-50.7

Productivity - Q1 (r)

3.5

3.6

3.5

Unit Labor Costs

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

June 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - May

180K

263

180

Private

175K

236

175

Manufacturing

8

4

4

Unemployment

3.6%

3.6

3.6

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.4

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

Wholesale Inventories - April

0.7%

0.7

Consumer Credit - April

$14.5B

10.3

13.0

Week of June 10

June 11

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - May

102.0

103.5

Producer Price Index - May

0.1%

0.2

PPI Core

0.2

0.1

Energy

June 12

Consumer Price Index - May

0.1%

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

Treasury Budget - May

-$198.0B

160.3

June 13

Export Prices - May

-0.2%

0.2

Import Prices

-0.3

0.2

Import Prices, ex-Energy

-0.6

June 14

Retail Sales - May

0.6%

-0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0,1

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

-0.2

Industrial Production - May

0.5%

-0.5

Capacity Utilization

78.2

77.9

Manufacturing Output

0.3

-0.5

Business Inventories - April

0.3%

0.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June (p)

102.0

100.0