Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 29 And July 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 29

June 29

Pending Home Sales Index - May

85.0

69.0

82.6

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

-30.0

-49.2

June 30

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

1.0%

1.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.5

0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

4.1

3.9

Chicago PMI - June

43.5

32.3

45.0

Consumer Confidence

90.0

86.6

91.6

July 1

ADP Employment Report - July

2900K

-2760

3000

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

49.6

49.6

ISM (Mfg) - June

48.5

43.1

49

ISM Prices

Auto Sales* - June

13.0K

12.2

Car Sales

3.0

2.6

Truck Sales

10.0

9.6

Construction Spending - May

0.6%

-2.9

1.0

July 2

Initial Jobless Claims

1400K

1480

1350

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

2900K

2509K

3074

Private

3000

3094

3000

Manufacturing

500

225

300

Unemployment

12.1%

13.3

12.3

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.7

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.0%

-1.0

-0.6

International Trade - May

-$53.4B

-49.4

52.4

Factory Orders - May

6.4%

-13.0

8.3

Durable Goods Orders

15.8

-17.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.0

-9.0

Week of July 6

July 6

PMI Services Index

46.7

46.7

ISM Services - June

59.0

45.4

48.2

July 7

JOLTS - May

4.800M

5.046

July 8

Consumer Credit - May

-25.0B

-68.7

-20.0

July 9

Wholesale Inventories - May

-1.2%

-1.2

July 10

Producer Producer Index - June

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services

0.1

0.1

0.1

Energy

4.5