Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 24 And July 1

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 24

June 24

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

-0.15

-0.45

-0.18

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

0.0

-5.3

-1.0

June 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

0.7%

0.7

0.5

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.1

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

2.6

2.7

2.5

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.2%

0.1

0.2

New Home Sales - May

673K

673

680

Consumer Confidence

132.0

134.1

132.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

5

5

4

June 26

Durable Goods Orders - May

0.2%

-2.1

0.0

International Trade in Goods - May

-$70.1

-72.1

-71.9

Wholesale Inventories - May (a)

0.4%

0.8

0.4

June 27

Initial Jobless Claims

216K

216

218

GDP - Q1 (f)

3.1%

3.1

3.1

Pending Home Sales Index - May

104.3

104.3

104.9

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

5

4

4

June 28

Personal Income - May

0.3%

0.5

0.3

Personal Spending

0.4%

0.3

0.4

PCE Price Index

0.1

0.3

Core PCE Price Index

0.1

0.2

0.2

Chicago PMI - June

54.2

54.2

54.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

97.9

97.9

97.9

Week of July 1

July 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

50.1

50.1

ISM (Mfg) - June

52.8

52.1

Construction Spending - May

0.2%

0.0

0.2

July 2

Auto Sales* - June

17.0

17.3

Car Sales

5.0

5.1

Truck Sales

12.0

12.2

July 3

Initial Unemployment Claims

ADP Employment Report - July

90

27

International Trade - May

-$49.8B

-50.8

-48.8

PMI Services Index

50.7

50.7

ISM Services - June

56.3

56.9

56.0

Factory Orders - May

0.1%

-0.8

Durable Goods Orders

0.2

-2.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.1

0.5

July 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

140K

75

160

Private

130

90

150

Manufacturing

2

3

2

Unemployment

3.6%

3.6

3.6

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3