Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 22 And 29

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 22

June 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

-5.0

-16.7

Existing Home Sales - May

4.330M

4.330

4.100

June 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

46.0

39.8

47.8

PMI Services Flash Index

45.0

37.5

46.0

New Home Sales - May

632K

623

639

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

0.0

-27

June 24

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.3%

0.1

June 25

Initial Unemployment Claims

1400K

1508

1300

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

12.0

-19

Durable Goods Orders - May

10.0

-17.7

10.5

International Trade in Goods - May

-$65B

-69.7

Wholesale Inventories - May (a)

0.4%

0.3

GDP - Q1 (f)

-5.0%

-5.0

-5.0

June 26

Personal Income - May

-5.0%

10.5

-6.0

Personal Spending

10.0

-13.6

9.0

PCE Price Index

-0.5

Core PCE Price Index

-0.4

Real Personal Spending

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

78.9

78.9

79.0

Week of June 29

June 29

Pending Home Sales Index - May

85.0

69.0

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

-35.0

-49.2

June 30

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

1.0%

1.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.5

0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

4.1

3.9

Chicago PMI - June

38.0

32.3

Consumer Confidence

90.0

86.6

July 1

ADP Employment Report - July

2900K

-2760

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

ISM (Mfg) - June

47.5

43.1

Auto Sales* - June

13.0K

12.2

Car Sales

3.0

2.6

Truck Sales

10.0

9.6

Construction Spending - May

0.5%

-2.9

July 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

2900K

2509K

Private

3000

3094

Core Private*

Manufacturing

500

225

Unemployment

12.1%

13.3

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.7

Average Hourly Earnings

0.0%

-1.0

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - May

-$43.5B

-49.4

Factory Orders - May

7.8

-13.0

Durable Goods Orders

12.0

-17.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

2.0

-9.0