Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 17 And 24

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 17

June 17

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

12.5

17.8

10

NAHB Index - June

66

66

67

June 18

Housing Starts - May

1.244M

1.235

1.240

Building Permits

1.300

1.296

1.290

June 19

FMOC

2.375%

2.375

June 20

Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

222

217

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index

14.0

16.6

14.0

Current Account - Q1

-$123.3B

-134.4

-123.5

Leading Indicators

0.2%

0.2

0.1

June 21

PMI Services Flash Index

50.9

50.9

50.9

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

51.5

50.5

51.0

Existing Home Sales - May

5.350M

5.190M

5.290

Week of June 24

June 24

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

-0.15

-0.45

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

0.0

-5.3

June 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

0.7%

0.7

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.1

Twenty City Y/Y

2.6

2.7

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.3%

0.1

New Home Sales - May

673K

673

Consumer Confidence

132.0

134.1

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

5

5

June 26

Durable Goods Orders - May

1.0%

-2.1

International Trade in Goods - May

-$49.8B

-50.8

Wholesale Inventories - May (a)

0.40%

0.8

June 27

GDP - Q1 (f)

3.1%

3.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.3

1.3

Pending Home Sales Index - May

104.1

104.3

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

6

4

June 28

Personal Income - May

0.3%

0.5

Personal Spending

0.4%

0.3

Chicago PMI - June

55.2

54.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

97.9

97.9