Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 15 And 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 15

June 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

-35

-48.5

-27.5

June 16

Retail Sales - May

8.5%

-16.4

8.0

Retail Sales, ex Autos

7.7

-17.2

5.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

-16.2

Industrial Production - May

2.0%

-11.2

3.0

Capacity Utilization

66.9

64.9

66.4

Manufacturing Output

Business Inventories - April

-0.4%

-0.2

-0.8

NAHB Index - June

45

37

45

June 17

Housing Starts - May

1.100M

0.891

1.100

Building Permits

1.300

1.074

1.248

June 18

Initial Unemployment Claims

1200

1542

1277

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index

-25.0

-43.1

-25

Leading Indicators

2.2%

-4.4

2.4

June 19

Current Account - Q1

-$105.0B

-109.8

-101.8

Week of June 22

June 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

-10.0

-16.7

Existing Home Sales - May

4.330M

4.330

June 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

43.5

39.8

PMI Services Flash Index

43.5

37.5

New Home Sales - May

628K

623

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-15.0

-27

June 24

FHFA Home Price Index - April

0.3%

0.1

June 25

Initial Unemployment Claims

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

-10

-19

Durable Goods Orders - May

10.0

-17.7

International Trade in Goods - May

-$65B

-69.7

Wholesale Inventories - May (a)

0.4%

0.3

GDP - Q1 (f)

-5.0%

-5.0

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.6

1.6

June 26

Personal Income - May

-5.0%

10.5

P ersonal Spending

3.0

-13.6

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

78.9

78.9