Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 14 And 21


Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of June 14
June 15
Retail Sales - May	-0.5%	0.0	-0.6
Retail Sales, ex Autos	-0.1	-0.8	0.5
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas	0.0	-0.8

Producer Price Index - May	0.3%	0.6	0.5
PPI Core	0.2	0.7

NY Fed Manufacturing Index	22.0	24.3	22.0

Industrial Production - May	0.3%	0.5	0.6
Capacity Utilization	74.8	74.6	75.0
Manufacturing Output	0.5	0.2

Business Inventories - April	0.1%	0.3	-0.1
NAHB Index - June	83	83

June 16
Housing Starts - May	1.700M	1.569	1.623
Building Permits	1.750	1.760

Export Prices - May	0.7%	0.8	0.8
Import Prices	0.8	0.7	0.8
Import Prices, ex-Peteroleum	0.5	0.7

FMOC	0.125%	0.125	0.125

June 17
Initial Unemployment Claims	370K	376	365

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index	35.0	31.5	31.8
Leading Indicators	1.5%	1.6	1.4

Week of June 21
June 21
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May	0.50	0.24

June 22
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	18	18
Existing Home Sales - May	5.650K	5.850

June 23
Current Account - Q1	-$207.0B	-188.5

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	62.1	62.1
PMI Services Flash Index	69.5	70.4

New Home Sales - May	890K	863

June 24
Initial Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Orders - May	2.5%	-1.3
International Trade in Goods - May	-$88.6	-85.2

GDP - Q1 (f)	6.4%	6.4

June 25
Personal Income - May	-3.0%	-13.1
Personal Spending	0.5%	0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)	86.4	86.4