Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 12 And 19

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 12

June 12

Treasury Budget - May

-$236.0B

176.2

-236

June 13

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - May

88

89

Consumer Price Index - May

0.2%

0.4

0.2

Core CPI

0.4

0.4

0.4

Energy

0.6

June 14

Producer Price Index - May

0.0%

0.2

-0.1

PPI Core

0.3

0.2

0.2

Energy

0.8

FMOC

June 15

Retail Sales - May

0.1%

0.4

-0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

0.4

0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.6

Philadelphia Fed Survey Index

-14.5

-10.4

-13.5

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.0

-31.8

-15.8

Export Prices -  May

-0.6%

0.2

0.0

Import Prices

-0.6

0.4

-0.6

Import Prices, ex-Peteroleum

-0.1

-0.1

Initial Unemployment Claims

235K

261

250

Industrial Production - June

0.0%

0.5

0.1

Capacity Utilization

79.6

79.7

79.7

Manufacturing

-0.1

1.0

-0.1

Business Inventories - April

0.2%

-0.2

0.2

June 16

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June (p)

59.4

59.2

60

Week of June 19

June 19

NAHB Index - June

50

50

June 20

Housing Starts - May

1.410M

1.401

Building Permits

1.435

1.416

June 22

Current Account - Q1

-$218.20

-206.8

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

0.15

0.07

Leading Indicators 

-0.4

-0.6

Existing Home Sales - May

4.17K

4.280

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing 

-1

June 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

49.5

48.4

PMI Services Flash Index

53.5

54.9