Economic Data Forecasts for the Weeks of July 6 and 13

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 6

July 6

PMI Services Index

46.7

46.7

ISM Services - June

49.0

45.4

49.5

July 7

JOLTS - May

4.800M

5.046

July 8

Consumer Credit - May

-19.0B

-68.7

-17.5

July 9

Initial Unemployment Claims

1400K

1427

1375

Wholesale Inventories - May

-1.2%

-1.2

-1.2

July 10

Producer Producer Index - June

0.3%

0.4

0.4

Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services

0.1

0.1

0.1

Week of July 13

July 13

Treasury Budget - June

-$700.0B

-398.8

July 14

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July

94.4

94.4

Consumer Price Index - June

0.3%

-0.1

Core CPI

0.1

-0.1

Energy

July 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

-0.2

Export Prices -  June

0.8%

0.5

Import Prices

1.0

1.0

Import Prices, ex-Energy

-0.1

0.1

Industrial Production - June

4.3%

1.4

Capacity Utilization

68.8

64.8

Manufacturing

5.5

3.8

July 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

Retail Sales - June

6.0%

17.7

Retail Sales, ex Autos

7.2

12.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

6.5

12.4

Philadelphia Fed Survey

15.0

27.5

Business Inventories - May

-1.5%

-1.6

NAHB Index - July

64

58

July 17

Housing Starts - June

1.100M

974

Building Permits

1.300

1220